Imagem: Divulgação

The race for the 96th Academy Awards (Academy Awards) is buzzing, and Betfair, a specialist in analysis and odds, couldn’t be left out.

With the awards ceremony approaching, the bookmaker has already analyzed the main categories of the ceremony, bringing valuable insights for film fans and bettors.

Who’s in the running

The film “Oppenheimer” emerges as one of the favorites, leading with a 70% chance of winning in the Best Film category.

With a plot that portrays the story of the atomic bomb, the feature film directed by Christopher Nolan won over not only critics, but also the public, with a box office gross of US$951 million.

Thus, in the Best Director category, Christopher Nolan is also highly rated, with an 84% chance of taking home the award. This would be the director’s second win in this category, following his 2018 nomination for “Dunkirk.”

But the British film “Zone of Interest” emerges as the favorite in the Best International Film category, with a 76% chance of winning.

In the Best Original Song category, the song “What Was I Made For”, by Billie Eilish & Finneas, from the film “Barbie”, has a 71% chance of winning, followed by “I’m Just Ken”, with 14%.

So, in the dispute for the Best Actor award, Cillian Murphy, for his performance in “Oppenheimer”, appears with a 70% chance, while Lily Gladstone is seen as a strong candidate for the Best Actress award, with a 31% chance.

Oscar 2024 favorites according to Betfair

Best movie

For many, the main category of the Oscar awards and also the category that includes the most candidates for the statuette, the dispute for best film of the year seems well underway for Oppenheimer, a film that portrays the story of the “creation” of the atomic bomb by the team of physicist Robert Oppenheimer during World War II.

According to Betfair’s analysis carried out by expert odds traders, the feature film has a 70% chance (odd of 1.06) of winning.

This means that, for every R$1.00 bet, the person would receive R$1.06 in case of a hit. Check out the full list:

  • Oppenheimer, with 70%;
  • Poor Things, with 7%;
  • Barbie and the The Holdovers, with 6% for each;
  • Killers of the Flower Moon and Anatomy of a Fall, with 3% for each;
  • The Zone of Interest, with 2%;
  • American Fiction, Maestro and Afterlife, with 1%.

Betfair also analyzed the best international film category. The British film Zone of Interest appears as the clear favorite according to the bookmaker, with a 76% chance of winning the category (odds of 1.04). See the full list:

  • The Zone of Interest, with 76%;
  • La Sociedad de la Nieve, with 13%;
  • Perfect Days, with 5%;
  • Lo Capitano and Das Lehrerzimmer with 3% cada.

Christopher Nolan on his way to history, according to Betfair

Another category that seems well on its way to Oppenheimer is best director, with Christopher Nolan.

This is the second time that the director has been nominated for this category (the first was in 2018 for the film Dunkirk) and, according to Betfair, he has an 84% chance of winning the unprecedented award (odds of 1.03).

  • Christopher Nolan, for Oppenheimer, with 84%;
  • Jonathan Glazer, for The Zone of Interest and Yorgos Lanthimos, for Poor Things, with 5%;
  • Martin Scorsese, for Killer of the Flower Moon and Justine Triet, for Anatomy of a Fall, with 3% each.

Best Actor and Actress

Considered the academy’s main individual category, the awards for best actor and actress always generate a lot of buzz in Oscar discussions. Check the chances of all candidates according to Betfair:

Best Actor

  • Cillian Murphy, for Oppenheimer (70%);
  • Paul Giamatti, for The Holdovers(23%);
  • Bradley Cooper, for Maestro (5%);
  • Colman Domingo, for Rustin and Jeffrey Wright, for American Fiction (1% each).

Best actress

According to Betfair, Emma Stone is the main candidate to win the award, after her performance in Poor Creatures. Check out the full list:

  • Emma Stone, for Poor Things (57%);
  • Lily Gladstone, for Killers of the Flower Moon (31%);
  • Sandra Hüller, for Anatomy of a Fall (5%);
  • Carey Mulligan, for Maestro (4%);
  • Annette Bening, for NYAD (3%).

Therefore, the presentation of the most popular award in world cinema is approaching! The Academy will award 23 Oscar categories in 2023 on March 10, at the Dolby Theater, in Los Angeles.