The long-awaited Carnival 2024, the biggest popular celebration in Brazil, is coming! Betfair, recognized for its expertise in data analysis and probabilities, has already advanced its predictions for the samba school parades in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
See now what the highlights will be for this year.
Unidos do Viradouro is the favorite in Rio de Janeiro
In Rio de Janeiro, Unidos do Viradouro emerges as the big bet for the title, while in São Paulo, Mancha Verde, Mocidade Alegre and Império de Casa Verde are in a fierce dispute.
In the capital of Rio, where carnival has its historical roots, Unidos do Viradouro stands out as the main candidate for the title.
With a rich and traditional history, Rio de Janeiro saw the birth of some of the biggest samba schools in the country, such as Portela, Mangueira and Beija-Flor.
According to Betfair analysis, Unidos do Viradouro leads the odds, with a 17% chance of becoming champion of Carnival Carioca in 2024.
Imperatriz Leopoldinense and Mangueira follow closely, both with 14%, while Beija-Flor de Nilópolis appears in third place, with a 10% chance.
Here is the list of favorites:
- Viradouro – 17%
- Imperatriz Leopoldinense and Mangueira – 14%
- Beija-Flor – 10%
- Vila Isabel – 8%
- Portela, Grande Rio and Salgueiro – 7% cada
- Mocidade and Unidos da Tijuca – 5%
- Paraíso do Tuiuti – 4%
- Porto da Pedra – 2%
Furthermore, there is an expectation surrounding Neymar’s presence at Sapucaí.
So, Betfair calculates a 76% probability of the player being present in the boxes. So, this adds even more interest and speculation to the event.
Betfair points out balanced competition at São Paulo Carnival
Meanwhile, in São Paulo, the Anhembi Sambadrome is preparing to host the competition between 14 samba schools in search of the title of 2024 Carnival champion.
The city has a diverse history. According to Betfair analysis, Mancha Verde, Mocidade Alegre and Império de Casa Verde emerge as the favorites, each with a 15% chance of winning.
Camisa Verde e Branco, Acadêmicos do Tatuapé, Vai-Vai and Dragões da Real are also in the race, with odds between 7% and 9%.
Here is the list of favorites:
- Mancha Verde, Mocidade Alegre and Império de Casa Verde – 15% cada
- Camisa Verde e Branco – 9%
- Acadêmicos do Tatuapé – 8%
- Vai-Vai and Dragões da Real – 7% cada
- Tom Maior e Independente Tricolor – 6% each
- Águia de Ouro – 5%
- Gaviões da Fiel – 4%
- Academics from Tucuruvi, Barroca Zona Sul and Rosas de Ouro – 1% each
Finally, Betfair also carried out weather forecasts for the parades, with a 60% chance of rain in São Paulo and only 15% in Rio de Janeiro, which could influence the progress of the presentations.
