This week the finalists for the Libertadores da América and Copa Sudamericana will be announced. Betfair analyzed the four semi-final matches, and pointed out who the favorites are for the final of the tournaments.
In the first games, there were three draws, leaving the finals open – the exception was the clash between LDU and Defensa y Justicia (won by LDU 3-0). The return games take place between Tuesday, 3rd, and Thursday, 5th.
South American: Fortaleza is favorite at home and remains the biggest candidate for the title
This Tuesday, the 3rd, Corinthians and Fortaleza decide the first finalist of the South American Championship. The duel takes place at Arena Castelão, in Fortaleza. In the first game, the score was 1-1.
In other words, whoever wins will be in the final at the Domingo Burgueño Stadium, in Punta Del Este, on the 28th.
According to Betfair, a specialist in sports analysis, Tricolor do Pici is the favorite to win the duel within the 90 minutes of the match.
There are 54% chances (odd of 1.78) for Fortaleza, while Corinthians have 19% (odd of 5.0). The draw, which would take the match to penalties, has a 27% chance (odd of 3.5).
In the event of a draw in the 90 minutes, Corinthians’ chances increase, but favoritism still remains with Fortaleza, according to Betfair. The São Paulo team has a 32% chance of winning if the match does not end in normal time, while the home team has a 68% chance.
The bookmaker also analyzed the chance of the decisive match having at least two goals, just like in the first clash. In this case, the chance is 66% (odd of 1.4).
The other semi-final has a very different scenario, as LDU won the first leg 3-0 at home. The return match takes place this Wednesday (04) and the home team are favorites according to Betfair.
There is a 54% (odd of 1.78) chance of victory for Defensa y Justicia, while a draw appears at 25% and LDU has a 21% chance of winning. However, the visitors have an 88% chance of reaching the final, thanks to their victory in the first game.
To qualify in regulation time, the home team must win by 4 or more goals difference. Defensa y Justicia’s chances of achieving 4-0 are just 4%.
Looking at the title, Fortaleza remains the team with the most chances of winning their first South American cup according to Betfair, with 36%. Next comes LDU (30%), Corinthians (21%) and Defensa y Justicia (13%).
Libertadores: Visitors will need to sweat to guarantee qualification in the 90 minutes
With three Brazilians still in contention, the first games of the Libertadores da América were marked by draws. While Palmeiras and Boca Juniors were 0-0 in Argentina, Internacional and Fluminense drew 2-2 at Maracanã.
On Wednesday, the 4th, Internacional welcomes the Cariocas to the Beira-Rio Stadium as favorites. For Betfair, the Colorados have a 44% (2.25) odds of winning in the 90 minutes.
The draw, which would take the match to penalties, appears at 28% (odd of 3.2). Fernando Diniz’s Fluminense victory is 30% (odds of 3.4).
Even though he is the top scorer in the current edition of the Libertadores da América with 11 goals, Germán Cano does not lead the chances of finding the net at any point in the game.
He is behind the Ecuadorian, Enner Valencia, from Internacional, who has a 42% chance (odd of 2.4). Cano appears with 37%, followed by Luiz Adriano (29%), Alan Patrick (26%) and John Kennedy (24%).
The second and final finalist will be defined on Thursday, 5th, when Palmeiras hosts Boca Juniors at Allianz Parque. Even with a very tough match in the first leg, the São Paulo team is widely favored according to the analysis.
Palmeiras appears with 54% (odd of 1.7), while the Argentines appear with 19% and a draw has a 27% chance.
The bookmaker also points out that the match has a high chance of ending with two goals. There is a 58% chance that Palmeiras and Boca will have a maximum of 2 goals.
The main candidates to score goals at any time are from the Palmeiras team. Are they:
- Endrick (43%);
- Rony (42%);
- Raphael Veiga (37%);
- Artur (34%);
- Flaco López (29%).
The Boca Juniors players who stand out in this aspect are Darío Benedetto with a 26% chance, followed by Cavani and Miguel Merentiel with 25%.
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