Brazil is favorite to win the World Cup, according to bookmakers
Photo: Lucas Figueiredo/CBF

The Brazilian team is the favorite to win this year’s World Cup, according to bookmakers. Argentina, France, Spain and England appear next, according to the odds from bet365, betfair and sportingbet.

The odds for Brazil are 4.5 in the 3 bookmakers consulted. If the player puts 100 reais on the selection’s victory and that happens, he will receive his bet money multiplied by the odd (R$ 450 in this case).

According to the odds, the XP team calculated the implied probability of each selection being champion. To do so, it considered the highest available odds for a given outcome, which would best represent the behavior of a fan placing a bet, and converted these odds into probabilities.

Thus, Brazil registers a 19.28% chance of being six, ahead of Argentina (13.34%), France (10.84%) and Spain and England (tied in 4th place with 9.64% ). The lanterns are Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia, each with 0.12%.

It is worth noting that the sports betting market is still waiting for the conclusion of the regulatory process in Brazil. According to estimates, there are 450 bookmakers operating in the country, moving values ​​around R$ 10 billion per year.

XP Research

In addition to calculating the odds from sports betting sites, XP’s quant strategy team did their own calculations and came up with a different answer: the 5 selections most likely to be champions are Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Netherlands and Spain.

The simulations indicated bad news for the Brazilians: the most likely decision is Argentina v France, with Messi and company having a 55% probability of lifting the cup, which has not happened since 1986.

Brazil, on the other hand, is the team most likely to be champion if it advances to the final, however, it is only sixth in probability of overcoming the qualifying stages in Qatar.

Netherlands and Argentina are the countries with the highest chances of going to the final (18.8% and 18.4%, respectively), followed by France (17.4%), Belgium (16.7%), England (15 .7%) and Brazil (15.4%).

Probabilidades do Brasil

If Brazil guarantees itself in the final scheduled for December 18, it will emerge as a big favorite. The selection has a 63% chance of winning the sixth star ahead of Argentina (61%) and Spain (59%) in this regard.

According to projections, the selection has an 87.9% probability of advancing to the round of 16, 59.3% of advancing to the quarterfinals, 29.8% of reaching the semifinals and 15.4% of reaching the long-awaited final (which has not happened since 2002).