The betting platforms asked, in a meeting held last Friday (27), that the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, linked to the Ministry of Treasury, block the operations in Brazil of companies that operate prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
This model works as a kind of stock exchange, in which the public places bets on different events. Kalshi was founded by Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, considered one of the youngest billionaires in the world.
On these platforms, users can bet on various events. Predictions include everything from the result of a wall on the reality show Big Brother Brasil to election outcomes and economic indicators, such as the level of unemployment.
Why bets ask for these platforms to be blocked
For the betting sector in Brazil, made up of companies that paid R$30 million for an operating license, these sites act as gaming platforms. As they have no license or headquarters in the country, bets claim that prediction markets should be illegal. Therefore, they ask the regulator to block access.
Furthermore, these sites operate in the country without regulation, so they resort to international remittances to an account in the United States. Brazilians can send money using crypto assets and international cards. Polymarket maintains a business page on Instagram dedicated to Brazil and verified by Meta.
How these platforms operate in the country without regulation
Today, without a position from the Ministry of Treasury and the CVM (Securities Commission, which supervises the sale of derivatives), there is no regulation on prediction markets.
In the CVM’s current understanding, the offshore sale of derivatives is not the authority’s responsibility when payments occur in international jurisdiction. This applies if there is no supply effort in Brazil or commercial intermediaries.
In the terms of use, Kalshi and Polymarket determine impediments only for citizens of countries with judicial restrictions against companies. They also veto people affected by economic sanctions from the American government.
In November, in the last round of investments, Kalshi announced expansion to more than 140 countries, without explicitly mentioning Brazil.
In practice, the company implemented a system to receive international remittances, through cryptocurrencies and card payments. Polymarket operates in a similar way. The description of the company’s page for Brazil says: “Trade and bet on politics, news, sports, culture and technology.”
Since Forbes magazine announced Luana Lopes Lara as the youngest billionaire in the world to build a fortune on her own merit, access to both platforms has multiplied. According to data from the monitoring company Similarweb, traffic grew after this release.
Regulatory debate involves SPA, CVM and electoral concerns
The president of the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), André Gelfi, participated in the meeting with the Secretary of Prizes and Betting, Daniele Correa Cardoso, and stated that the debate in Brazil has similarities with the regulatory discussion underway in the United States.
In the North American country, the Kalshi platform received authorization to offer event-based derivatives, but faces legal action in states where sports betting is legal.
According to Gelfi, platforms of this type can expand the irregular market when Brazilian users access services hosted outside the country, without complying with national rules. He also pointed out that the lack of local supervision makes it difficult to control the operations carried out on these platforms.
Experts in electoral law assess that the production of statistics related to the electoral process should remain under the supervision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The court has already ordered the removal of websites that offered similar services.
Furthermore, advertisements from the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms highlight the possibility of profiting from event predictions. Therefore, if these operations are classified as betting, this type of advertising may conflict with Brazilian legislation in the sector.
National regulations also establish that the purchase of predictions must occur through Pix. The measure seeks to reduce the risks of credit card debt and prevent money laundering with crypto assets. Still, these payment methods appear available on prediction market platforms.
At the moment, the regulatory debate discusses which body should supervise these companies in Brazil: the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), a model adopted in European countries, or the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), an approach similar to that applied in the United States following decisions by the Federal Court.
