Stellar Gaming, the group behind the EstrelaBet and Vupi brands, released a report offering a detailed analysis of the first year of regulation in Brazil. Among other topics, it presents the profile of bettors, economic impacts, technological trends, and perspectives for the future of the iGaming market in Brazil.
The period analyzed by the company was from January to October 2025. To support the report, Stellar Gaming used partial company data as well as indirect methodologies for estimating the illegal market, in addition to some commercial information.
Among the aspects analyzed by the brand is the high cost of operating a regular platform in the country. The high taxation on the GGR (total bets minus winnings paid out) of the companies.
Another warning highlighted in the report concerns taxes on the sector. Recently, Provisional Measure 1.303/2025 proposed raising the tax rate from 12% to 18% on GGR (Gross Generating Waste). According to the government, the goal was to collect an additional R$ 1.98 billion by 2026.
However, another bill was approved by Congress and signed into law by the president. The proposal increases the tax rate to 13% in 2026, 14% in 2027, and 15% from 2028 onwards.
How can external examples contribute to building a sustainable regulated market?
According to the report’s analysis, raising taxes is not a solution for increasing revenue. “According to the publication Financieele Dagblad, the tax increase in the Netherlands caused a 25% decline in corporate gross revenue, representing a drop of €200 million in tax collection,” states an excerpt from the text.
The illegal gambling market in Brazil is also addressed in the presentation. Therefore, the figures presented show that 55% of bets are placed on illegal websites, according to LCA/Locomotiva/IBJR (Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gambling).
Measuring the illegal market is another key point highlighted in the text. This is because another way of assessing these operations is needed. “Based on studies prepared by LCA/IBJR, the methodology starts with an estimate of the total betting market, based on aggregated data from Pix transfers from the Central Bank and the conversion of these flows into GGR (net spending),” says part of the presentation.
Check out the full report:
