The proximity of the 2026 World Cup has rekindled comparisons with the fifth championship campaign won by the Brazilian team in 2002. A study released by Superbet analyzed historical data, probabilities and opinion polls to identify similarities between the two periods and assess fans’ perception of Brazil’s chances at the World Cup.
According to the survey, the environment of distrust that surrounds the team currently presents characteristics similar to those observed before winning the fifth world title.
In 2002, the Seleção reached the World Cup after an irregular campaign in the Qualifiers, changes in the coaching staff and questions about the squad’s performance. At that time, France and Argentina appeared among the main favorites for the title.
According to Guilherme Simantob, a statistician at Superbet, the scenarios share several elements.
“The odds in 2002 would certainly be as high as what we have now in 2026. The scenario has several similarities: a lot of discredit, suffocation in the classification phase and pressure from the press”, he explains.
What the survey reveals about fan confidence
The study also used data from the Super Thermometer, a survey carried out by the QualiBest Institute between June 4th and 6th.
The results indicate that 58% of those interviewed maintain an optimistic or moderately confident stance regarding the performance of the Brazilian team. The survey points out that this feeling is directly linked to the team’s previous experiences in World Cups.
Furthermore, 58% of participants see medium or high chances of an overcoming campaign in the 2026 World Cup.
The data also show differences between the groups surveyed. The female public showed a higher level of indecision when responding about the possibilities of the Selection.
Among social classes, respondents from Class A showed more skepticism when compared to participants from Class C. Among fans aged 61 or over, 44% believe in an intermediate possibility of a reaction from the national team. In the range between 40 and 50 years old, this index was 33%.
Another question assessed whether the Seleção’s recent history influences confidence in winning Hexa. In this scenario, 35% stated that frustrations in previous World Cups reduce confidence in the title.
On the other hand, 22% believe that history shows Brazil’s ability to grow in times of lower expectations. Another 37% declared to be moderately confident.
The survey interviewed 824 internet users aged 40 or over, from different regions and socioeconomic classes in the country.
What were the chances of the Brazilian team before the fifth championship
The analysis also sought to reconstruct the probabilities surrounding the Seleção before the 2002 World Cup.
According to the study, if the current odds methodologies were applied in that period, Brazil would have a quote of 8.50 to win the title, equivalent to approximately 11% mathematical probability.
For the 2026 World Cup, the odds appear in the range of 9.50. According to the survey, the international market gives around a 5% chance for Hexa to win.
Journalist and narrator Jorge Iggor participated in the analysis and highlighted the relationship between expectations and team performance.
“Looking at the historical context and the odds themselves proves that not carrying absolute favoritism for 2026 is a great advantage. Arriving without the burden of being the main team in the market relieves the pressure and leaves the environment much lighter. In 2002, the squad also contradicted all the prognoses and clinical suspicions of its main stars to lift the cup”, reinforces Jorge Iggor.
Another fact highlighted by the study involves the experience of the current cast.
According to Guilherme Simantob, the Players called up for the 2026 World Cup have accumulated 305 titles in their careers. In comparison, the group that competed in the 2002 World Cup had 176 achievements.
“There is an unprecedented and favorable point for the current team. Those called up for the 2026 tournament have accumulated many more titles than the 2002 team at that point: there are 305 titles added now, compared to 176 in 2002. This gives experience in big games that could be our invisible asset”, highlights Simantob.
The data, analysis and historical comparisons are gathered on the Penta Odds platform, which will continue to receive updates throughout the 2026 World Cup.
