The 2026 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) college basketball tournaments are expected to generate unprecedented volume on US betting platforms.
According to projections from consultancy H2 Gambling Capital, American sports operators are expected to process around US$4 billion in bets during this year’s March Madness.
Therefore, the amount represents a growth of 6.7% compared to the US$ 3.7 billion handled in the 2025 edition.
The tournament, which starts on March 17th, is consolidated as the most liquid period in the US sporting calendar.
Although the Super Bowl attracts the most money in a single game ($1.4 billion), basketball’s extensive schedule of games ensures a continuous flow of cash for companies.
Furthermore, the expansion of the legalized market and the recent launch of operations in the state of Missouri drive this projected increase.
What is the real impact of prediction markets on bookmakers
In addition to regulated operators, prediction market platforms emerge as an alternative route.
H2 estimates that these scholarships could generate the equivalent of US$530 million in financial volume in 2026, bringing the event’s total turnover to almost US$4.5 billion.
Despite operating under intense legal debate in several American jurisdictions, the impact of these competing platforms in states where sports betting is already legal is minimal.
Analysts calculate that prediction markets should only capture between US$135 million and US$150 million in these regulated areas, representing around 3.5% of the total projected amount, which rules out the risk of direct audience migration.
User behavior and gross revenue (GGR) escalation
The tournament also strategically changes consumer behavior.
Data from the analytical application Juice Reel reveals that 12% of March Madness bettors do not make any predictions in the period leading up to the competition, proving the strength of the event in activating casual customers.
For operators, the main financial challenge is retention margins.
As college athletes generate less individual engagement than professionals, there is a natural drop in player prop markets and combined bets, which tend to be more profitable.
However, H2 projects an optimistic retention rate of 7% for 2026, surpassing the previous year’s 6.1%.
Combining this hold with record volume, bookmakers are expected to generate approximately US$279 million in gross gaming revenue (GGR), a significant annual jump of 23%.
