Formula 1 begins the 2026 season on Sunday, March 8, with the Australian Grand Prix, held at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne. The race officially opens the championship calendar and marks the beginning of a completely renewed technical cycle in the category.
Changes in regulations alter several aspects of how cars function and can alter the competitive balance between teams. Following the pre-season tests carried out in Barcelona and Bahrain, the first projections on the performance of drivers and constructors throughout the championship emerged.
What changes in Formula 1’s technical regulations in 2026
The new regulations introduce relevant changes to the power units used by cars. Approximately 50% of the energy now comes from the electrical part of the system.
Furthermore, the category removed the MGU-H system, a component that recovered thermal energy from exhaust gases. At the same time, cars start to use completely sustainable fuel.
The aerodynamic package also received structural adjustments. The redesign seeks to increase the energy efficiency of the cars and facilitate closer disputes between drivers during races.
Consequently, these changes create a scenario of greater unpredictability at the beginning of the season. Historically, unprecedented technical cycles tend to generate variations in team performance.
In this context, the test sessions held in Barcelona and Bahrain provided the first indications of the grid’s performance for 2026.
Who are the favorites for the World Drivers’ Championship
Among the drivers, George Russell, from Mercedes, appears as the main candidate for the world title. The Brit has a 25% chance of winning the championship, with an odds of 2.9.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull driver and four-time champion of the category, is right behind with 18% probability and an odd of 4.
Charles Leclerc, from Ferrari, appears next in the projections with a 12% chance of winning the title.
Lewis Hamilton, Leclerc’s teammate, has a 10% chance of winning the championship. Kimi Antonelli, who shares Mercedes with Russell, appears with 8%.
Current world champion, Lando Norris, has a 7% chance of repeating the title. The same percentage appears for Oscar Piastri, also a McLaren driver. Both won seven races each in the 2025 season.
Odds — Drivers’ World Championship
| Pilot | Title chances |
|---|---|
| George Russell | 25% |
| Max Verstappen | 18% |
| Charles Leclerc | 12% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 10% |
| Kimi Antonelli | 8% |
| Lando Norris | 7% |
| Oscar Piastri | 7% |
| Fernando Alonso | 3% |
| Isack Hadjar | 1% |
| Pierre Gasly | 1% |
| Carlos Sainz | 1% |
| Alex Albon | menos de 1% |
| Lance Stroll | menos de 1% |
| Oliver Bearman | menos de 1% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | menos de 1% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | menos de 1% |
| Esteban Ocon | menos de 1% |
| Liam Lawson | menos de 1% |
| Franco Colapinto | menos de 1% |
| Sergio Perez | menos de 1% |
| Valtteri Bottas | menos de 1% |
| Arvid Lindblad | menos de 1% |
What to expect from newcomers Audi and Cadillac in the category
The 2026 season also marks the official entry of two new teams into Formula 1: Audi and Cadillac.
Both appear with less than 1% probability of winning the Constructors’ World Championship this season.
Audi begins its participation with Nico Hülkenberg and Brazilian Gabriel Bortoleto as starting drivers. The team structures the project with a long-term strategic vision, taking advantage of the new technical cycle in the category.
On the other hand, Cadillac debuts as a representative of an American manufacturer in Formula 1. The team will feature Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas.
The two drivers have accumulated relevant experience in the category. Together, the Mexican and Finn have 16 victories, 23 pole positions and 106 podiums throughout their careers.
Odds — Constructors’ World Cup
| Team | Title chances |
|---|---|
| Mercedes | 36% |
| McLaren | 20% |
| Ferrari | 20% |
| Red Bull | 13% |
| Aston Martin | 3% |
| Alpine | 3% |
| Williams | 3% |
| Audi | menos de 1% |
| Haas | menos de 1% |
| Racing Bulls | menos de 1% |
| Cadillac | menos de 1% |
Gabriel Bortoleto starts season in development phase
Within this new Formula 1 scenario, Gabriel Bortoleto appears as one of the drivers in the process of evolution on the grid.
The Brazilian has less than a 1% chance of winning the world drivers‘ title, with odds of 250.
In Audi’s internal confrontation, Bortoleto has a 41% probability of finishing the season ahead of Nico Hülkenberg. The German has a 59% chance of winning the dispute within the team.
For the Australian Grand Prix, the Brazilian appears with less than 1% probability of winning, with odds of 250.
The possibility of reaching a podium in the opening stage reaches 2%, with an odd of 50. The chance of scoring in the race appears at 25%, with an odd of 4 to finish in the top ten.
Projections for the opening race of the season
The first projections for the Australian Grand Prix also place George Russell as the main favorite.
The Mercedes driver has a 28% chance of winning the race. The same percentage appears in the projections to win pole position.
Furthermore, Russell has a 20% probability of recording the fastest lap of the race, with an odd of 3.5.
Odds — Australian GP winner
| Pilot | Chances of victory |
|---|---|
| George Russell | 28% |
| Max Verstappen | 17% |
| Charles Leclerc | 14% |
| Kimi Antonelli | 11% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 10% |
| Lando Norris | 8% |
| Oscar Piastri | 6% |
| Isack Hadjar | menos de 1% |
| Pierre Gasly | menos de 1% |
| Fernando Alonso | menos de 1% |
| Carlos Sainz | menos de 1% |
| Alex Albon | menos de 1% |
| Esteban Ocon | menos de 1% |
| Oliver Bearman | menos de 1% |
| Arvid Lindblad | menos de 1% |
| Liam Lawson | menos de 1% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | menos de 1% |
| Valtteri Bottas | menos de 1% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | menos de 1% |
| Sergio Perez | menos de 1% |
| Lance Stroll | menos de 1% |
| Franco Colapinto | menos de 1% |
About Betfair
Founded in 2000 in the United Kingdom, Betfair created the world’s first peer-to-peer betting platform, known as Exchange.
The system works like a betting exchange that directly connects bettors. In this model, users can offer and accept odds between themselves in real time.
Over more than two decades, the company has expanded its operations globally and consolidated its presence among the main platforms in the sector.
Betfair currently has a license to operate online betting and other games in 19 countries, including Brazil, Spain, Italy, Malta and Great Britain.
