A study by LCA Consultoria Econômica, in partnership with an entity in the betting sector, revealed surprising numbers about the online sports betting market in Brazil.
While the study presented by the Central Bank estimated an annual impact of R$216 billion, the LCA showed that real net spending is around R$16.3 billion per year. This represents just 0.5% of the total consumption of Brazilian families.
Online betting numbers
The numbers reveal that, when discounting the amounts returned as prizes, the reality of betting appears less alarming. According to the research, Brazilians’ debt has not increased significantly, indicating that the practice of betting is more within controllable limits than a generalized financial threat.
In the Central Bank’s latest analysis, data on transfers through PIX to online betting platforms were the highlight. Thus, the amount was between R$18 billion and R$21 billion per month from January to August. However, the study by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) highlights that these numbers do not reflect the absolute size of the market.
As Eric Brasil, director of LCA, points out: “It’s not that the Central Bank gets the math wrong. It itself estimates that 15% of the value is actually retained by the bookmakers.” So, if 85% come back to bettors, that makes the market big, but “not a monster”.
In other words, the estimate is that the platforms’ real revenue is approximately 7%, with an annual result of R$16.3 billion, while the BC projected around R$35 billion.
The controversy also revolves around the use of Bolsa Família in online betting. In August, program beneficiaries spent approximately R$3 billion on online betting, according to the Central Bank report.
Eric Brasil points out that “if prizes are discounted, net spending in August would be R$450 million, which would correspond to 3% of the program’s value.”
The reality of Brazilian family finances
The Central Bank’s stance is not to comment on these issues. But the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) proposes the formation of a multisectoral working group. Therefore, the objective is to deepen the study of the economic impacts of betting, seeking a more precise diagnosis.
The LCA study also analyzes how online betting affects household debt and consumption. The research indicates that platform revenue corresponds to just 0.2% to 0.5% of total consumption, depending on the sources used.
Therefore, in relation to GDP, the betting sector still represents only 0.1% to 0.3% of national income. Another aspect addressed is the fluctuation in the percentage of families in debt.
Data from the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) show that defaults have remained stable, far from representing a systemic problem linked to betting. Even so, a recent study indicates that fundraising by platforms resulted in a slight revision in the Brazilian retail growth forecast to 2.1%.
However, the CNC warns that defaults in the first half of the year affected around 1.3 million Brazilians, including bets in this scenario. Felipe Tavares, chief economist at CNC, explained: “this 1.3 million was distributed throughout the year” and that “we have a movement of defaulters coming in and out.”
Therefore, these data suggest that the default situation remains stable even with online betting allowed since 2018. But the discussion about their impact continues to be relevant, especially in a scenario of growing popularity of this type of entertainment.
