Last Thursday (3), the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) criticized a recent study by the Central Bank (BC). ANJL highlighted “serious mistakes” in the information about Bolsa Família beneficiaries’ spending on online betting.
According to the entity, the real amount spent by this group does not exceed R$450 million per month, well below the R$3 billion presented by the BC.
ANJL says there are discrepancies in the data
ANJL also highlights an error of R$8 billion in the Central Bank’s analysis of the size of the betting market. But the association disputes the assessment of the bettors’ profile and income, arguing that “contrary to what the note published by the Central Bank makes it appear, beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program are not spending a significant part of the income transfer on online betting”.
Instead, ANJL claims that “the federal government raises much more from sports betting than beneficiaries spend.”
Since the publication of the data, there has been an increase in criticism of the sector, driven by federal government leaders and members of Congress. President Lula (PT) met with ministers to discuss more restrictive measures in relation to gamblers.
The UOL report revealed that there is a group of Bolsa Família bettors who placed bets well beyond the income limit allowed to participate in the program. This phenomenon raises suspicions of fraud, aspects that were not addressed in the BC study.
Controversies over the withdrawal of bets among Bolsa Família beneficiaries
The Central Bank document indicated that 56 companies totaled R$20.8 billion in transfers in August. Therefore, ANJL suggests that the institution may have double-counted amounts, resulting in an inflated estimate of total spending on betting.
The association also highlights that, on average, 85% of the amount bet returns to the players, which would mean a significant error in the calculation of the BC.
“Just to give you an idea of the arbitrariness, which could be confirmed if the Central Bank’s data is opened for criticism, there is an error of more than R$8 billion in the BC’s calculation base”, states the ANJL.
Bettors profile
Another important aspect raised by ANJL concerns the profile of Bolsa Família beneficiaries who supposedly work in betting. In other words, the Central Bank study indicates the participation of 5 million beneficiaries, of which 3.5 million are heads of families.
However, data from the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance indicate that around 80% of the heads of families in the program are women, a figure that, according to ANJL, does not match the predominant profile of bettors, which is mostly male.
The previous week, ANJL sent a letter to the BC, questioning the methodology used in the study, but received no response. “Without the opening of the data by the Central Bank, the technical note must be analyzed as a hypothetical study, which cannot support changes in the sector.”
The regulation of the betting sector was approved during the government of Michel Temer (MDB) and should have been completed during the administration of Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The legislation was only approved in December 2023, and was gradually put into practice in recent months. The regulated market will officially come into force in January 2025, with an adaptation period from October to December of this year.
For ANJL, any setback in this process will not only encourage an increase in illegal activities. Furthermore, it will result in the loss of state control and the social contribution that a regulated market could provide.