This Sunday, the 24th, São Paulo and Flamengo will be in the field at 4pm, at Morumbi, for the big decision of the Copa do Brasil. According to Betfair, a specialist in sports odds, São Paulo has a 74% chance of becoming champion of the Copa do Brasil – odds of 1.2, that is, for every R$1 bet on the team’s title, the return will be R$ $1.20.
But every result is possible and a Flamengo comeback cannot be ruled out. According to the bookmaker, there is a 26% chance of winning the title for Mengão (odds of 3.5).
In this Sunday’s match, São Paulo has a 41% chance of winning (odds of 2.25), against 31% for Flamengo (3.0). The probability of a draw, which gives São Paulo the title, is 28% (3.25).
On the one hand, the Tricolor team has the advantage of a draw after winning the first game 1-0 and will count on the support of its fans in the search for the unprecedented title in its history. On the other hand, the red-black team from Rio will need to overcome internal disagreements if they want to reverse the score.
São Paulo had less than 5% title chances on Betfair at the start of the season
Having never won the Copa do Brasil in its history, São Paulo was not considered one of the favorites for the competition title in 2023.
According to Betfair, the team had only a 5% chance of winning the title (odds of 21.0). In other words, the fan who bet R$100 on São Paulo’s title in February has a great chance of winning a jackpot of R$2,100 if the São Paulo team really becomes champion.
Flamengo was seen as the main candidate with a 15% chance of winning the title in 2023 (odds of 4.5). In 2022, the Rio team won the Copa do Brasil for the fourth time under the command of Dorival Júnior, now coach of São Paulo.
Grêmio was the favorite team for Betfair bettors; São Paulo occupied 9th position
Considering the period of the first three rounds of the competition (February 22nd and April 28th), Betfair found that Grêmio was the team that received the largest number of bets, representing 24.8% of the volume and 25.6% of the money bet. The team from Rio Grande do Sul was eliminated by Flamengo in the semifinals.
São Paulo was only the 9th team on the list of favorites for the title during February and April, with the same volume of bets as Remo (1.88%).
After Grêmio, Palmeiras (20.7% of betting volume), Flamengo (8.3%) and Corinthians (7.5%) were the favorite teams for bettors, according to Betfair analysis.
55% chance of Sampaoli leaving the field before the final whistle
One of the moments that had the most impact in the first game of the Copa do Brasil grand final was the departure of Jorge Sampaoli, Flamengo’s coach, from the field before the final whistle in the first half. The scene caused discomfort among part of the red and black fans and increased pressure for the Argentine coach to remain in Rio de Janeiro.
According to Betfair, the chances of Sampaoli repeating the feat and leaving the field before the final whistle in this Sunday’s game are 55%. The bookmaker also indicates a 55% probability of the coach being fired after the match regardless of the result.
Zero to zero guarantees São Paulo title, but chances of scoring are 94%
According to Betfair analysis, the Copa do Brasil final in Morumbi will feature goals: there is a 94% chance of at least one goal at any time in the match (odds of 1.06). Furthermore, the most likely score for the match is 1-1 with 18% chance (odd of 5.5).
