The ‘zebras’ happen in force in this World Cup. A total of 10 games ended with surprising and unexpected results, yielding high prizes for the most ‘daring’ bookmakers.
On November 22, the beginning of the international tournament, Saudi Arabia won an impressive victory over Argentina by 2-1. The match had emotion from the beginning, with the Saudi national team winning the comeback and dismantling one of the favorites of the Cup.
The odds are usually quite high for those betting on unlikely events. For those who don’t know, the ‘odd’ represents the chance of an outcome happening and the possibility of winning when betting on that outcome. According to the Oddspedia website – which compares odds from different bookmakers – on average bets offered BRL 25.49 for every BRL 1 bet in Saudi Arabia, setting an average odd of 25.49.
That is, those who bet BRL 800 on the victory of the Saudi team took home about BRL 20,392 (BRL 800 x 25.49). But considering the odds, the odds calculated by bookmakers for Saudi Arabia to beat Argentina were just 3.92% (100/25.49).
If a fan bet BRL 50 on the final results of the ten biggest upsets of the Cup, the total profit from betting on the highest available odds would be BRL 5,136.50 – more than 927.30% return – or BRL 3,948.00 , considering the average odds offered by the houses – a profit of 689.60%. Check out a simulation below:
| Match | Date | Scoreboard | Bet | Zebra Guess (higher odds) | Win at the highest odds | Zebra Guess (medium odds) | Gain on average odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia vs Argentina | 22/11 | 2×1 | R$ 50 | 35 (Betsson) | R$ 1.750,00 | 25,49 | R$ 1.274,50 |
| Morocco vs Croatia | 23/11 | 0x0 | R$ 50 | 3.44 (PowerBet) | R$ 172,00 | 3,29 | R$ 164,50 |
| Japan vs Germany | 23/11 | 2×1 | R$ 50 | 9 (MrGreen) | R$ 450,00 | 7,22 | R$ 361,00 |
| Morocco vs Belgium | 27/11 | 2×0 | R$ 50 | 6.66 (Sportsbet.io) | R$ 333,00 | 4,60 | R$ 230,00 |
| Tunisia vs France | 30/11 | 1×0 | R$ 50 | 10 (LVBet) | R$ 500,00 | 6,12 | R$ 306,00 |
| Australia vs Denmark | 30/11 | 1×0 | R$ 50 | 9.02 (Sportsbet.io) | R$ 451,00 | 7,66 | R$ 383,00 |
| Japan vs Spain | 01/12 | 2×1 | R$ 50 | 9 (MrGreen) | R$ 450,00 | 7,22 | R$ 361,00 |
| South Korea vs Portugal | 02/12 | 2×1 | R$ 50 | 6.20 (LVBet) | R$ 310,00 | 4,37 | R$ 218,50 |
| Cameroon vs Brazil | 02/12 | 1×0 | R$ 50 | 10.31 (PQWBet) | R$ 515,50 | 9,11 | R$ 455,50 |
| Morocco vs Spain | 06/12 | 0x0 | R$ 50 | 4.1 (888Sport) | R$ 205,00 | 3,88 | R$ 194,00 |
| Total stake | R$ 500,00 | ||||||
| Total win (higher odds) | R$ 5.136,50 | 927,30% | |||||
| Total win (average odds) | R$ 3.948,00 | 689,60% |
Winning bets on the ‘zebras’ of the World Cup
Despite the high odds, the victory of the Saudis attracted less than 2% of the total bets placed on this match on the Esportes da Sorte platform. However, a man from Uberlândia-MG decided to take a chance on the ‘zebra’. The bettor invested BRL 800 in the Saudi victory and had a significant return of BRL 22,400 – Esportes da Sorte offered an odd of 28 for the victory of the Asian team.
In addition to this, another prediction in Esportes da Sorte called attention. A player correctly guessed the tie between Croatia and Morocco (odd 3.3) in the group stage and Japan’s victory over Germany (odd 7.8), in the multiple bet mode. The gamblers had bet BRL 1 thousand and took home the amount of BRL 25,740 thousand.
The betting site stated: “Betting on a draw in this game for Croatia comprised 5% of the total invested in the game, while the victory for Japan was chosen by less than 1% of the players”
On the Casa de Apostas platform, a user bet BRL 10 on Saudi Arabia’s victory during the match and got a return of BRL 1,600 – while the game was taking place, the offered odd increased to 160.
Even some celebrities made money with the underdogs in this World Cup. Rapper Kyan bet BRL 500 on Saudi Arabia and left with BRL 42,500. He bet on Estrela Bet at the time the game was taking place, with an odd of 85.
Lucky for some and bad luck for others.
Betting on ‘zebras’ made a small number of players win a lot of money with attractive odds. But in the same way that some bets on unlikely results, a large part of the players bet on the most obvious results – and in this Cup some people had significant losses.
An example is the case of the import assistant, Júlio Lima, who has been placing sports bets for 1 year and had never taken a ‘red’. In this year’s tournament, Júlio managed to stay in the ‘red’ for the first time: “I had some money to bet, about R$ 150, I played little by little, as I always do, but I ended up losing everything. There was a lot of upset in this Cup ” .
