Counting from today, there is exactly one month left until the start of the 2026 World Cup. The competition will officially begin on June 11, at 4pm (Brasília time), with the clash between Mexico and South Africa, at the Azteca Stadium.
As the tournament approaches, the Brazilian Football Team appears only in sixth place among the favorites for the world title. The survey was released by the Opta Analyst supercomputer, which calculated the probabilities of each team winning the competition.
According to the projection, Brazil has a 6.23% chance of lifting the cup. Furthermore, the estimate places the team led by Carlo Ancelotti behind five teams.
The scenario represents a change compared to recent World Cup cycles. In other editions, the Brazilian team was usually among the main candidates for the trophy. This time, however, European teams dominate the top of the rankings.
Spain leads the list with a 15.81% title probability. Next come France, with 12.95%, and England, with 11.06%.
Furthermore, the current world champion, Argentina, occupies fourth place with 10.46%. The Portuguese team closes the group of teams positioned ahead of Brazil, registering 6.89%.
Which selections complete the favorites ranking
Right behind the Brazilian team, other traditional teams from world football appear. Germany has a 5.76% chance of winning the title, while the Netherlands has a 3.82% chance.
In addition to them, Norway appears with 3.39%. Finally, Belgium completes the list of the ten best placed teams, with 2.40%.
Despite its position in the ranking, Brazil’s record in World Cups remains one of the most relevant in the competition. Even so, the statistical model considers the recent performance of teams throughout the current global cycle.
Therefore, the projection reinforces a more balanced scenario for the 2026 edition. At the same time, the Brazilian team remains among the teams with the greatest chance of winning the tournament.
Check out the ranking released by Opta Analyst:
1st – Spain: 15.81%
2nd – France: 12.95%
3rd – England: 11.06%
4th – Argentina: 10.46%
5th – Portugal: 6.89%
6th – Brazil: 6.23%
7th – Germany: 5.76%
8th – Netherlands: 3.82%
9th – Norway: 3.39%
10th – Belgium: 2.40%
Opta model accumulates successes and frustrated predictions
Opta Analyst’s projections have gained visibility in recent years. Recently, the system named Chelsea as favorites for the Club World Cup title. Subsequently, the English club confirmed the achievement against Paris Saint-Germain.
On the other hand, some predictions did not come true, for example, in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Brazil led the odds with more than 16% chance of winning the title. However, the team finished outside the top four positions.
In that edition, Argentina beat France in the final and won the world trophy.
Furthermore, the model also pointed to Liverpool as favorites for the current season’s Premier League title. However, the dispute remains open between Manchester City and Arsenal in the final rounds.
Research shows progress in betting for the 2026 World Cup
A survey released by Paysafe, carried out in January this year, points to growth in online betting during the 2026 World Cup.
According to the study “All the Ways Players Pay: World Cup 2026”, 19% of global consumers who intend to follow the tournament plan to place their first online bet precisely during the World Cup.
Furthermore, the survey shows that factors linked to trust and fast payments directly influence the choice of platforms. For many consumers, these criteria carry more weight than promotional bonuses or number of available markets.
In the host countries, interest in betting also appears to be on the rise. In the United States, 62% of respondents stated that they intend to bet during the competition. Meanwhile, Mexico recorded 68% betting intention.
In Canada, the rate reached 46% among residents of the province of Ontario. Brazil also appeared among the highlights of the survey, with 66% of respondents showing interest in betting during the tournament.
Furthermore, Pix leads among Brazilians’ preferred payment methods, reaching 48% of preference in the survey.