The American political scene is in turmoil, and the dispute between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the presidency of the United States promises to generate millions in bets.
The recent decision of the American Court released betting for the elections that will take place on November 5th. This new betting possibility has attracted the attention of investors and bettors, who see this market as a unique opportunity.
Release of online betting
Last Friday (11), bets in favor of Harris varied between 48% and 50% on the Interactive Brokers platform. This increase in interest in online election betting is a direct effect of the legalization carried out on October 2nd.
It is worth remembering that the United States faced a long conflict between regulators and companies interested in exploring electoral markets. Now, the scenario has changed, and bets have become the new thermometer of the election.
With just a month to go until the big voting day, the release of betting was encouraged by a Washington court, which gave the green light to Kalshi, a startup with a history of trying to implement political betting.
This move came as legal disputes over its operation still unfold. In just a few days, more than US$6.3 million, equivalent to around R$35.44 million, was bet on the presidential election alone.
Users not only bet on candidates, but also on which parties will control Congress. This dynamic highlights a new chapter in the dispute between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and companies seeking to exploit election bets.
These types of online bets are permitted in other countries, but many Americans choose to participate in offshore markets.
Growth of betting markets on the presidential clash between Kamala and Trump
An example of a state market is Polymarket, which has already recorded more than US$1.7 billion, around R$9.56 billion, in bets on the presidential race. Last Friday (11), Trump had an advantage over Harris, with 54% against 45%.
Betting advocates argue that these “event contracts” allow you to express legitimate opinions about election results. They compare these bets to “futures contracts”, highlighting their validity.
“These contracts are important,” says Steve Sanders, executive vice president of marketing and development at Interactive Brokers. “They help people understand what’s going on and protect their investments.”
The volume of transactions on this platform surpassed one million in a few days, demonstrating the growing potential of this new market. However, this expansion of electoral bets is not without controversy.
Critics raise warning flags about the risks involved, especially in a polarized political context. They point out that many citizens are making decisions based on distorted information. “
I don’t want to sound dramatic, but we live in a country where tens of millions of Americans believe the last presidential election was a fraud,” comments Rob Schwartz, general counsel at the CFTC.
Judge Patricia Millett, who allowed the election bets to take place, addresses these concerns. “Ensuring the integrity of elections and avoiding undue interference and disinformation are, without a doubt, of paramount public interest,” he highlighted.
However, she also argues that the CFTC “has not provided this court with any concrete basis for concluding that event-driven contracts would be a vehicle for such harm.”
