The Betfair betting platform saw a significant increase due to strong interest in the United States presidential elections, contested by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
On the Betfair Exchange platform, electoral markets already accumulate more than 500 million reais in bets globally. This growth reflects bettors’ growing interest in predicting election results.
Trump and Kamala generate R$3 million in Brazil
Among Brazilian bettors, the amount already bet reaches around 3 million reais. Unlike traditional polls, Betfair offers an alternative view of the election results.
Rosiane Siqueira, director of public relations at Betfair, highlights the importance of betting based on predictions. It claims that bookmakers got 22 out of 24 major elections right in 2020. This includes Lula‘s victory in Brazil in 2022. Therefore, when choosing where to invest, it is crucial to consider market analysis and trends.
The last US presidential election was a record: more than 7 billion reais in bets from all over the world on Betfair. This year’s race appears to be no different; everything is set to be a big event in the platform’s history, said the spokeswoman.
Officially, the presidential race began this year, but in 2023, the dispute had already taken place between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Between July and November 2023, the probability of Trump returning to the presidency fell from 3.75 to 2.37.
It is worth remembering that the lower the odds, the greater the probability of the result happening. This increases your chances to 58%. Biden, the current American president of the Democrats, maintained his chances, with coefficients ranging from 2.37 to 3.25 (42%).
Game changed with the entry of Kamala Harris
With this, Republican Trump ended 2023 as the favorite to return to the White House. In December 2023, Trump was declared ineligible by the Colorado Supreme Court. But, even in this situation, his favoritism increased to 2.25, while his opponent appears with 3.25.
Only in April 2024 did the odds begin to increase, causing a balance in betting: 2.10 (52%) for Trump and 2.20 (48%) for Biden. So, in the last episode in Pennsylvania, where Trump was shot in the ear, he left the candidate with a 1.44 rating, which is equivalent to a 69% probability of victory.
Biden, at this moment, went from 2.62 to 7.00, with a chance of 31%. A series of changes to the campaign began on July 21, when Joe Biden withdrew from the candidacy. Kamala Harris, his vice president, became the Democrats’ preferred candidate.
From January to July, Kamala went from 51.0 (2%) to 2.20 (48%), improving her position after Biden’s negative impact in the debate. So, at the end of August 2024, the Betfair odds between Trump and Kamala are stronger than ever.
But now, the two candidates are now technically tied, suggesting an intense presidential contest, much like in 2020. So, as the election approaches, the odds are expected to continue to change with each development and campaign statements.
Therefore, future debates, the release of new economic data and the evolution of legal issues will be decisive for the outcome of the American elections.
