Bets for Donald Trump to win the US presidential election rose to 54.8%, according to data from RealClearPolitics (RCP). President Joe Biden‘s chances fell to 19.2% after a poor performance in the first debate against the Republican.
Before the debate on CNN, Biden had a 35.7% chance of re-election, according to the RCP betting market average. However, after the event, these chances dropped drastically.
During the debate, Biden demonstrated fragility, wavering and getting confused at several moments. He was unable to finalize thoughts on important topics such as immigration and health.
Biden’s performance in the debate worried the Democratic Party. Some bettors are more optimistic about the chances of other Democratic names becoming the party’s presidential candidate in 2024.
Gavin Newsom, governor of California, rose to 10.8% in betting, while Vice President Kamala Harris reached 4.5%, tripling compared to the pre-debate.
Trump x Biden and the electoral process in the USA
Although he participates in pre-campaign debates, Joe Biden is not yet the party’s official name for the presidential elections. The Democratic National Convention, which will take place in August, will decide the name of the party’s official candidate.
Biden, having won the electoral primaries, has priority, although there is the possibility of replacement. In the USA, the presidential candidate needs to obtain support in all 50 states, facing a complex system of local preliminary elections.
Biden has already received this support to have his name included on the ballot in the November 5 contest. Therefore, for the Democratic Party, it would be difficult to change the candidate at this point, as in addition to convincing Biden to leave the race, it would be necessary to regain state support for a new candidate.
A natural choice could be the current vice president, Kamala Harris, but she is seen by voters as excessively left-wing and has lower popularity than Biden.
In other words, the Democrats have little time, a lot of uncertainty and no name clearly qualified to bet on a possible replacement for Biden in November.
