The election for the post of president of the republic is an event awaited not only by candidates and their parties. The dispute is also sparking interest from punters across the country. Therefore, bookmakers are increasing their operation in Brazil and also providing the chance for players to bet on who will be the new president.
At Betfair, the amount invested has already exceeded 3 million reais. Betting on elections has the same rules as the sports lottery: the player places an amount and, in an eventual victory, invoices an amount according to the ODDS presented by the bookmakers. ODDS are the opposite of probability, as mentioned by Gonçalo Costa, from ODDS Scanner, a business that presents statistics on betting.
“If team A has a 50% chance of winning, the odd is 1/50% (one divided by 50%) = 2. Based on that, people choose how much they want to bet on each event, and if they win, they get paid. the stake multiplied by the indicated odd”, he told the website Metrópoles.
The higher the probability of winning, the lower the ODD quote. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), currently appears as a possible winner in one of the bookmakers. Lula’s ODDS, therefore, are lower than those of his competitors. On that site, the ex-president’s quote is 1.40. In theory, if someone puts 200 reais on the PI candidate’s victory and gets it right, they will receive 280 reais, the amount bet multiplied by 1.40.
A bet of the same amount on Ciro Gomes (PDT), a candidate with few chances of winning, has a higher ODD (29). The gambler would receive BRL 5,800 with Ciro’s victory.
Sports betting vs betting on the political scene
Gonçalo Costa explained that bets in political disputes differ from guesses in football games. “The polarization of the political scenario can indeed generate an increase in this irrational form of betting, but the context of elections is different from that found in football – there is a smaller volume of people because it is something relevant to the local and not global population and also because they are not so many who are interested in this type of bet.”
In addition, he advised the interested party to understand how the betting market works before actually betting. “Once you assume that the probability of winning is not 100%, you have to be careful not to lose all your money overnight. Therefore, in this market, there is a lot of talk about bankroll management and emotional control, two fundamental pillars not only to not lose money too quickly, but also to avoid losing it in the long term”.
Situation of candidates in bookmakers
Former President Lula is in first place in all bookmakers. According to Liver Tracker, a tool that assesses each candidate’s chance of winning, PT has a more than 70% chance of winning. In second place, current president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has 26.67%, followed by Simone Tebet (MDB), with 4.76% and Ciro Gomes, 2%.
To arrive at these statistics, the platform considers the ODDS in various bookmakers, polls of voting intentions, news and records of candidates for the presidency of Brazil.
