Kalshi’s co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, stated that the company intends to dialogue with Brazilian authorities to reverse the decision that restricted the operation of so-called predictive markets in the country.
In an interview during Web Summit Rio, the Brazilian businesswoman stated that the measure was motivated by a lack of understanding about how this business model works.
“We’re going to work with the government to try to explain what we do, because I think it’s more of an educational gap than anything else. In the United States, we started working with the government in 2019. We spent many years explaining what we do.”
At the end of April, the Ministry of Finance ordered the blocking of platforms like Kalshi. The understanding was that these companies offer sports predictions without following the requirements imposed on the regulated betting market, including operational license and money laundering prevention mechanisms.
According to the executive, the company remains interested in officially operating in Brazil.
“The plans continue. It is a question of schedule, prioritization and regulatory compliance. Being Brazilian, I consider it essential to bring the operation to the country.”
The executive added that she believes in faster regulatory evolution in Brazil than what occurred in the United States, where the company faced years of debates with regulatory authorities.
Kalshi states that the model differs from bookmakers
During the interview, Lara reinforced that Kalshi does not operate like a traditional betting house.
According to her, the company generates revenue by charging fees on transactions carried out between users, a model similar to that used by stock exchanges and futures markets.
“Kalshi doesn’t make money when people lose. That’s a big difference.”
The businesswoman explained that the platform receives a brokerage fee when a user buys a contract and another carries out the opposite operation. The amount charged is around 1% of the transaction.
“We are not a bookmaker. Users do not gamble against Kalshi. The company does not profit when the customer loses.
Company highlights monitoring and combating manipulation
Asked about cases of alleged use of privileged information on prediction platforms, Luana stated that Kalshi has mechanisms to identify and prevent practices considered irregular.
According to the co-founder of Kalshi, the company reports suspicious cases to US authorities and prevents the participation of users with potential conflicts of interest.
“Because we are regulated, the practice of manipulation or insider trading constitutes a federal crime. Suspected cases are reported to the US Department of Justice.”
The executive also stated that professional athletes cannot negotiate contracts linked to competitions in which they participate. Furthermore, members of political parties have restrictions in certain electoral markets.
How the platform maintains restrictions for certain topics
According to Lara, Kalshi adopts limits for the contracts offered to users.
The company does not allow markets related to war, murder, terrorism or events considered unethical.
“Although violent events generate economic impacts, we establish an uncompromising ethical line. The platform must not generate direct financial incentives for tragedies to occur.”
Why user losses spark debate about financial protection
Market data shows that around 70% of users of predictive platforms record financial losses. For Lara, this percentage needs to be analyzed within a broader context.
In her view, short-term operations in traditional financial markets tend to present even higher loss rates. The executive highlighted that Kalshi operates under a system that limits losses to the amount previously deposited by users.
Furthermore, the platform adopts protection mechanisms, such as deposit limits and financial behavior monitoring.
“If we detect recurring losses, we require proof of financial capacity.”
Court decision boosted company growth
The founder of Kalshi also commented on the effects of the court decision obtained by the company in the United States in 2024. The victory allowed the company to start offering contracts linked to the North American presidential elections, expanding its visibility and accelerating its growth.
According to her, the decision marked a transformation in the company’s trajectory. “There is a Kalshi before and another after this decision.”
She stated that electoral markets have become one of the most relevant areas within the forecasting segment and have contributed to increasing the interest of investors, media outlets and financial market participants.
Kalshi is currently valued at approximately US$22 billion, while Luana Lopes Lara became the youngest woman to be worth more than US$1 billion.
