The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) presented this Sunday (8) an economic analysis on the restricted impacts of the project to increase the tax rate on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). This indicator corresponds to the revenue from bets minus the amounts paid in prizes and the Income Tax withheld on these prizes on digital betting platforms.
The study, developed by economist Itanielson Cruz, projects that the initiative could result in monthly revenue ranging from R$170 million to R$680 million. However, the document indicates a possible loss of up to R$2.8 billion in revenue due to the potential withdrawal of operators interested in operating in the national regulated sector.
The entity assesses that the tax increase, suggested to compensate for the reduction in revenue caused by the change in the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF), will produce a limited fiscal effect on the federal budget.
Change affects legal companies in the country
The change specifically impacts companies that operate or plan to operate legally in Brazilian territory.
The study highlights the critical period for implementing the new regulatory structure for the segment. Cruz stated : “The proposal to increase the rate applicable to GGR occurs at a sensitive time in the process of implementing the new regulatory framework and may increase the likelihood of legal action by companies that are already licensed or have applications under analysis.”
Plinio Lemos Jorge, president of ANJL, expressed similar concerns. The executive stated : “Changing the regulatory conditions that had already been established allows for legal challenges, since the economic-financial balance of the contracts is not balanced in the way they were signed.”
The report also warns about possible growth of the irregular market in the segment. According to the document : “In segments with a high tax burden, such as online gaming, increasing taxes can encourage operators and users to migrate to unlicensed platforms, compromising the effectiveness of tax collection and increasing informality.”
New tax threatens betting company operations
The study indicates that the measure could harm established companies and those awaiting authorization to operate in the national territory. The new fee will come into effect in June 2025 and may affect requests under evaluation by the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA).
The document cites international cases, covering nations with established regulatory frameworks, highlighting the dangers of sudden changes without prior analysis. Such changes harm competition in the legal market and benefit unregulated operations.
The research concludes by stating: “even if the projected base starts from a GGR compatible with the sector’s real data, it is not possible to ensure that the collection will evolve proportionally to the increase in the rate, since the reaction of economic agents can neutralize — or even reverse — the estimated fiscal gain”.
Read the full study on possible losses of R$2.8 billion in the betting sector.
