Caixa Econômica Federal estimates to pay 190 million reais in the Quina de São João special competition, the largest amount in the history of this modality. A simple bet, with five tens, costs R$ 2. But you can increase the chances of winning by betting on 15 numbers. In this case, the ticket price jumps to R$6006.
With the five tens wheel, the chances of receiving the jackpot are 1 in 24,040,016. While dialing the 15 numbers, the odds go from 1 to 8005. The draw is scheduled for this Saturday, June 26th. But is it worth playing 15 tens?
According to Cristiano Torezzan, from the State University of Campinas (Unicamp), playing an extra ten has the same effect as six separate games. “All combinations have the same chance of getting out. So, if you want to increase the chance of winning alone, a bettor can try combinations that people tend to avoid, for example, those involving sequences of numbers,” he said in an interview with Portal Uol .
While the mathematician from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Gilcione Nonato Costa, stated that the chances of winning at Quina de São João with a simple game are minimal. However, with bigger bets, the chances of winning grow significantly.
“From a probabilistic point of view, a person has a better chance of winning if he bets all available money at once than if he bets multiple times. In draws where large amounts are available, big bettors make considerable bets, but always with high risk “, explained to Portal Uol.
Quina de São João Award does not accumulate
It is important to note that the prize does not accumulate in this special Quina de São João contest. If no bets guess the numbers, the jackpot will be passed on to the player who hit the court, and so on.
This special draw, which has been taking place since 2011, has never awarded a single bet. In 2019, no bettors guessed the five dozen. Thus, the value was divided between 1577 players who got four right.
Probabilities of success
- 5 numbers for R$ 2 – Quina’s Odds: 1 on 24.040.016
- 6 numbers for R$ 12 – Quina’s Odds: 1 in 4,006,669
- 7 numbers for R$ 42 – Quina Odds: 1 in 1,144,763
- 8 numbers for R$ 112 – Quina Odds: 1 in 429,286
- 9 numbers for R$ 252 – Quina Odds: 1 in 190,794
- 10 numbers for R$ 504 – Quina Odds: 1 in 95,396
- 11 numbers for R$ 924 – Quina Odds: 1 in 52,035
- 12 numbers for R$ 1,548 – Quina Odds: 1 in 30,354
- 13 numbers for R$ 2,574 – Quina Odds: 1 in 18,679
- 14 numbers for R$ 4,004 – Quina Odds: 1 in 12,008
- 15 numbers for R$ 6,006 – Quina Odds: 1 in 8,005