New figures suggest that the Dutch gaming tax increase resulted in a €200 million deficit. This figure compares to last year’s tax revenue, after the staggered tax increase took effect in January of this year.
According to Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the Dutch gaming authority, the country will announce a sharp drop in revenue throughout the year.
Data from the trade body Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) indicates that gross gaming revenue in the first half of 2025 will fall by 25% compared to last year.
As a result, KSA’s tax revenue will be only 83% of the revenue collected in the same period in 2024. This is expected to occur despite the increase from 4% to 34.2% of the GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) from January 1st. The rate for operators will increase further to 37.8% of GGR from January 1, 2026.
The Ministry of Treasury had expected to raise an additional €200 million annually between 2025 and 2028. However, figures to be released this week are likely to confirm fears that the government will not reach its target.
The information was confirmed to the newspaper by a KSA spokesperson. VNLOK expressed concern that the Dutch market is in decline due to the restrictive measures enacted last year.
Why is the Dutch GGR decreasing?
According to VNLOK, bans on non-targeted advertising and sponsorships, as well as the introduction of deposit limits and an increased tax burden, are causing licensed operators to lose market share to unregulated rivals.
The KSA’s April report revealed that gross gaming revenue in the second half of 2024 was 10% lower than in the first half of the year. Thus, the implementation of new protective measures in October played a key role in the decline.
Since October 1st, players have been banned from depositing more than €700 in a single month. The limit has been reduced to €300 for those between 18 and 25 years old.
The combination of new measures and a different methodology led the KSA to revise the channeling rate for legal operators. Also based on the GGR, which was 58% in the first half of 2024, this rate dropped to just 50% in the second half of the year.
But the average number of player accounts remained relatively stable, rising from 1.1 million to 1.19 million six months earlier. According to the KSA, this is due to higher-value players turning their attention to illegal offerings to circumvent deposit limits.
In a LinkedIn post, trade group Brancheorganisatie VAN Kansspelen said the data showed the tax hike was “doubly reckless.”
The body added: “[The] increase is ineffective, inefficient and even completely counterproductive, both in terms of budget and in relation to the objectives of gambling policy.”
Why is the government increasing the gambling tax in the Netherlands?
The increase in the gaming tax rate in the Netherlands will be implemented in two phases. Initially, licensees will face another increase to 37.8% of GGR starting January 1, 2026. The increase was imposed despite a government-commissioned study warning that it would drive licensees out of the market.
The tax will affect all sectors and channels, from casinos and gaming houses to lotteries and online services. When introducing the change last year, the government stated that it expected to generate additional tax revenue of €202 million.
However, a report published last year by research agency Atlas Research warned that the tax hike could force online operators out of business.
Presented during the budget session, the report indicated that operators “will have to take measures to stay out of the red.” According to the text, as operators attempt to pass on increased costs to players, they may, as an alternative, seek to bet on the illegal market.