The possible succession of Pope Francis is already mobilizing bookmakers in several countries. Speculation about the next pontiff and his national origin is driving a market that exceeds R$6 million, according to the GamblingNews website.
Pope Francis, 88, is suffering from bilateral pneumonia, according to the Vatican, the leader of the Catholic Church is improving. Hospitalized on February 14, he remains under medical observation for a few more days.
Top names to succeed Francisco
Currently, three names are leading the betting pool to succeed Francis. Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, former archbishop of Manila and coordinator of evangelization in the Roman Curia, is the favorite.
In addition, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, head of the Vatican Secretariat of State, is also among the top candidates.
Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, head of the Dicastery for Integral Human Development, completes the list of top candidates.
The choice of a Filipino cardinal would mean greater attention to Asia, where Catholicism is advancing.
On the other hand, the election of an African pope could highlight pressing social issues. Meanwhile, Parolin’s ascension would reinforce internal Vatican politics and mark the return of an Italian to the papacy after nearly five decades.
It is worth noting that, in the last conclave, the Argentine Jorge Bergoglio, current Pope Francis, was not among the 10 most popular names.
History of betting on the Papacy
Betting on the papal succession is not new. In 1549, Roman bankers were not only betting, but also using privileged information from assistants to the cardinal electors.
Later, in 1591, Pope Gregory 14 banned the practice, threatening excommunication. However, this measure did not prevent betting from continuing.
As early as 1903, the Italian government’s official lottery included predictions about the death of Pope Leo XIII. The penalty of excommunication for Catholics who gambled was repealed in 1917.
Analysis of the current scenario
The current scenario reflects significant changes in the Catholic Church. Furthermore, the bets show global interest in choosing the next leader. Meanwhile, Francis’ health continues to be closely monitored.
Therefore, the papal succession not only generates internal debates, but also moves a specific betting market. Thus, the process of choosing the next pontiff remains under the international spotlight.
