Recent voting intention polls in the United States have caused a stir in bookmakers, especially on the eve of the presidential election. Several websites indicate a significant reduction in the difference between the candidates: Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.
Bookmakers follow latest electoral survey
Last Friday (1st), the “Election Betting Odds” website began recording this change. On Monday morning (04), confirmation came and Trump had a 54.8% chance of winning, while Kamala had a 44.7% chance.
A week earlier, Trump led with 61.9%, and Kamala had just 37.7%. This rapid shift highlights the volatility of betting and the dynamics of the presidential race.
The movement in bookmakers began on Friday, but gained strength between Saturday night and Sunday morning. Two respectable polls showed a significant advance for Kamala Harris in the final stretch of the campaign.
Thus, the survey produced by Des Moines Register and Mediacom, focused on the state of Iowa, was one of the highlights. The result was surprising: Kamala led with 47% of intentions, while Trump registered 44%.
But this result was especially impactful, as the institute has an impressive track record of correct predictions in Iowa since 2012. In other words, the initial expectation was that Trump would have a more comfortable lead, as other previous polls showed the Republican with a clear lead in the state.
According to analysts, Kamala Harris’s success can be largely attributed to her strong preference among female voters.
Trump and Kamala Harris focus on swing states
On Sunday, another revealing survey emerged: that carried out by Siena College, commissioned by “The New York Times”. This time, the poll covered several key states, where Kamala Harris had some advantage in North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada.
However, Trump remains in the lead in Arizona. The scenario becomes even more intriguing with numerical ties in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both crucial for defining the new US president.
Furthermore, the Polymarket website, widely used by bettors, also showed a decrease in the distance between the two candidates. The changing dynamics of betting reflect not only bettors’ confidence but also uncertainty regarding the impending election outcome.
Voting takes place this Tuesday (5)
As the elections approach, the evolution of voting intentions and bets shows that the candidates are closer than ever. This intensity of dispute in decisive states can influence both the campaign strategy and the behavior of bettors in bookmakers in these last hours.
After all, the vote to define the winner between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the White House takes place on Tuesday, November 5th, across the country.
