With the 2024 municipal elections approaching, betting houses promise to generate millions in Brazil. Thus, the first round will take place on October 6th and the second – in large cities where none of the candidates reached 50% of the valid votes plus one – on the 27th of the same month.
São Paulo is the focus of bookmakers
According to a recent survey, at least six bookmakers offer odds on municipal elections in 13 capitals in Brazil (see below).
- Belém (PA);
- Belo Horizonte (MG);
- Curitiba (PR);
- Florianópolis (SC);
- Fortaleza (CE);
- Goiânia (GO);
- Manaus (AM);
- Natal (RN);
- Palmas (TO);
- Porto Alegre (RS);
- Rio de Janeiro (RJ);
- Salvador (BA);
- São Paulo (SP)
In the report’s analysis, only two bookmakers (Betano and Novibet) allow users to bet on who they believe will win in the country’s 13 capitals.
The other four betting websites (Sportingbet, Superbet, Bwin and BetSpeed) focus on the dispute for the position of mayor of São Paulo (SP) between the candidates: Guilherme Boulos (PSol), José Luiz Datena (PSDB), Marina Helena (Novo) , Pablo Marçal (PRTB), Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Tabata Amaral (PSB).
So, companies that were already operating in the country at the time of publication of the “Lei das Bets”, in December 2023, have until the end of this year to meet the criteria and obtain the right to work in Brazil under the brand “bet.br ”.
According to the Ministry of Finance, from January 1, 2025, the day on which the regulated market begins to operate, bets without authorization from the Prizes and Betting Secretariat (SPA) will be subject to penalties.
To date, 113 companies have requested a license from the Organizational Management System (Sigap) to operate in the country next year.
Collection of bets in Brazil
The federal government estimates that it will be able to raise up to 3.4 billion reais this year through grant payments, each costing 30 million reais. However, the value is expected to be low because not all companies that submit applications will be accepted.
But for electoral lawyer Diogo Villela Barboza, from the Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research (IDP), the impossibility is for “elections to be held” through internet betting.
“All that cannot happen is that the vote is misdirected or has an unfair effect on the candidate. In other words, the bet starts to carry out a campaign that changes as something they call odds [the probability of an event taking place]” – commented Barboza.
According to lawyer Iasmin Gonçalves, to avoid legal problems, bookmakers need to make it clear that the odds do not correspond to an electoral vote intention.
For Antônio Peleja, specialist in electoral law and member of the Brazilian Academy of Electoral and Political Law (Abradep), as betting activity is still recent in the country, “it will be in the Electoral Court that will analyze the behavior that may affect the election, case by case.”
There are no legal restrictions on political betting. What is not allowed to be done are electoral polls.
Bets on the US elections
The United States (USA) has a tradition of betting on elections. For Americans, political bets are almost like polls.
“It’s a new thing that’s not new. It’s new to us here, but in the United States it’s very popular, it’s a market that makes a lot of money.” – commented electoral lawyer Diogo Villela Barboza.
Data from sports betting company Betfair shows that the North American election generated more than 500 million reais on the platform. So, of this amount, 3 million reais came from Brazilian bettors.
