The American presidential race was not very new in the bookmakers, but after Saturday (13), in the attack on former president Donald Trump, the chances of the mega businessman winning the election skyrocketed.
Thus, according to Polymarket, the Republican candidate’s chances rose 10 points and reached 70%. Trump distanced himself further from his opponent Joe Biden.
Bets on Donald Trump increase
But despite Biden’s odds increasing from 16% to 17%, the odds for other Democratic candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris, dropped significantly.
Bets on Polymarket can be taken into account as they are recorded through smart contracts on the blockchain.
The website PredictIt, which uses fiat currency, also recorded an increase in Donald Trump’s shares. Values that were 59 cents before the shooting peaked at 66 cents and stabilized at 65 cents.
At a news conference after the NATO meeting, Biden, 81, showed signs of hesitation and confusion. This raised concerns about his re-election campaign on November 5th.
However, the press conference had little impact on bookmakers’ projections, which continue to show a favorable scenario for Trump.
Shifting Media Focus
Professor Vinicius Vieira, from FGV and FAAP, analyzes that the shooting could, in the long term, strengthen Donald Trump’s narrative. “This further enhances Trump’s candidacy.”
But, on the other hand, Biden’s campaign, questioned by allies, could benefit in the short term. The episode generated a wave of condemnation of political violence, uniting different sectors.
Vieira highlights that the media’s focus could change, starting to discuss more about Donald Trump, which gives Biden time to regroup his support. “This could help Biden contain the bleeding that is affecting his campaign,” he concluded.
In short, the shooting not only altered the electoral landscape, but also raised questions about the viability of both parties’ candidacies. While Trump benefits from growing support, Biden will have to work to maintain his solid base. The presidential race promises to be increasingly fierce.
