Joe Biden is no longer the Democratic Party bookmakers’ favorite name to face Donald Trump in this year’s American elections. His vice-president, Kamala Harris, exceeded her intentions in the betting market.
The current president has suffered a sharp decline since last week’s debate against Donald Trump. Biden has just a 9.7% chance, while Harris shot up to 17.5% last Tuesday (2).
Kamala Harris improves situation, but Trump is still favorite
The data comes from the Real Clear Politics aggregator, which compiles information from sites such as BetOnline, Betfair, Bovada, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets.
On the eve of the debate, Biden was at 35.5%, but fell to 19.2% shortly after the event. Since then, its popularity has not risen again in the betting market.
California Governor Gavin Newsom rose quickly after the debate, but his name also fell after a brief spike. Last Monday, Kamala Harris had just 4.3%. However, the favorite in the betting market remains Republican Donald Trump, who leads with 56.2%.
According to a New York Times source, Joe Biden had confided in an important ally that he would have to quickly convince the public that he was capable of facing Trump.
Because, if you don’t do this, you risk losing your candidacy. The red alert came after the poor performance in last week’s debate.
The source spoke on condition of anonymity to the newspaper. After the report was published, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that the president “will definitely not withdraw from the race.”
Biden’s future
Biden will have two crucial events that could determine his future in the presidential race and give the public confidence:
- An interview scheduled for next Friday (05) with George Stephanopoulos, from ABC News
- campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
According to this same ally, a source from the New York Times, Biden appears deeply involved in his re-election process.
“He knows if he has two more events like this, we’ll be in a different place by the end of the weekend,” the ally said, referring to Biden’s halting and unfocused performance in the debate.
The impact of betting on the electoral race
The betting market reflects a significant change in electoral prospects, highlighting the volatility and importance of debates in the campaign.
Kamala Harris, with her rise in the stakes, now positions herself as a central figure in the Democratic race as Biden struggles to make up ground. Donald Trump, in turn, remains firmly in the lead among bettors, indicating that this year’s presidential race will be intensely contested.
This movement in betting could influence not only public perception, but also the candidates’ campaign strategies in the coming weeks.
